Rents, Rates, and Market Shifts in the Bay Area
This summer may be cool and foggy, but the Bay Area housing market is anything but still. Like the fog, it is always shifting. What we’re seeing is less a slowdown and more of a shuffle. Rents, rates, and buyer behavior are all in motion.
In San Francisco, rents are soaring. Average monthly rent is now around $3,570, up about $255 in the past year, with one-bedrooms climbing more than 13% year over year to over $3,400. Those numbers are pushing renters to do the math, especially as mortgage rates dip to their lowest point in 10 months.
The result? San Francisco condos are regaining traction, single-family homes remain as competitive as ever, and across the Bay, East Bay homes are softening just enough to give buyers more room. If the past is any guide, this reshuffling could eventually send more San Francisco buyers looking across the bridge.
San Francisco Condos: Back in Demand
For much of the past few years, condos lagged behind single-family homes. But with rents jumping, the math is shifting. Buyers who once dismissed condos are now stepping in, and sellers are starting to see multiple offers again, sometimes even sales above list price.
The median condo price is hovering around $1.1M, but what matters more is the mood: condos no longer feel like the overlooked stepchild of the market. Between rising rents, leaner inventory, and buyers returning to the city, this corner of the market has a pulse again.
San Francisco Single-Family Homes: Still Competitive
Single-family homes never really lost their edge. With fewer than 200 homes on the market at any given time, supply is tight, and demand has stayed strong. Median price is holding around $1.63M, and homes continue to sell in about two weeks.
Even though total sales volume has slowed, the buyers who are active are serious, and they are competing. This part of the market remains the city’s crown jewel.
East Bay Single-Family Homes: A Softer Summer
The East Bay tells a different story. Prices have leveled off, inventory has ticked up, and homes are sitting just a touch longer than last year. It is still a competitive market, with most homes going into contract in just over two weeks, but compared to San Francisco, buyers here have more breathing room and more choice.
The Bigger Picture: A Market in Motion
What these pieces add up to is a reshuffling. San Francisco rents are pulling renters into ownership, condos are gaining traction, single-family homes remain the city’s prize, and the East Bay is showing some signs of opportunity.
If history holds, the East Bay will not stay soft for long. Once buyers feel priced out of San Francisco, they will look across the bridge, and choice will tighten quickly. And while the current shuffle is creating some openings, there is another factor on the horizon: the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates, maybe even multiple times, before year’s end. If that happens, affordability may improve on paper, but more buyers will also step back into the market.
For now, the market is in motion, much like the fog that shifts as September gives way to clearer days.
*All market data current as of July 2025. Sources: Zillow, SFAR MLS, Axios, and SFGate.