Winter Pulse: How the Bay Area housing market is closing out 2025
As the year winds down, I wanted to share a pulse on how the Bay Area housing market is actually closing out 2025, and what this winter stretch is quietly setting up as we head into the next year.
Winter usually slows things down. Fewer listings. Fewer decisions.
This year, the slowdown is uneven. In some places, the market barely has time to pause. In others, hesitation is shaping outcomes more than ever.
That contrast is the story of this winter.
San Francisco. When supply disappears, speed takes over
Single family homes in San Francisco aren’t just selling. They’re getting absorbed almost as soon as they appear.
Inventory is down more than thirty percent from last year, leaving just over a hundred homes available citywide. With so little supply, the market doesn’t have time to hesitate. Homes are moving in a median of 13 days, and more than eighty percent are selling above list, with sellers receiving an average of 116 percent of asking. Median prices are now sitting around $1.8M.
What stands out isn’t just how fast homes are selling. It’s how little room there is for indecision.
Buyers aren’t touring casually or waiting to compare multiple options. When a well located, well prepared home hits the market, it draws immediate attention and decisive action. There’s no buildup. Just movement.
That’s why competition feels compressed rather than chaotic. Demand shows up in short, intense bursts instead of prolonged back and forth.
Condos are following a similar pattern, though more selectively. Inventory has tightened, contract activity has picked up, and nearly half are selling over list, especially in neighborhoods tied to office reactivation and tech driven hiring.
Right now, San Francisco is operating in a market where scarcity sets the pace, and speed becomes the strategy.
Inner East Bay. Where selectivity, not urgency, decides outcomes
Across the bridge, the energy shifts.
Homes in the Inner East Bay are still selling, but they’re not all selling the same way.
Higher end homes and truly turnkey properties are moving, sometimes quickly. These homes attract buyers who are prepared, confident, and willing to stretch when the value feels clear. When everything lines up, decisions happen fast.
But that urgency drops off quickly below the top tier.
Lower priced homes, entry level properties, and homes that need work are taking longer to find their match. Days on market stretch out. Price reductions happen quietly. Buyers slow down, reassess, and wait.
This isn’t a market freezing up. It’s a market enforcing standards.
Buyers are no longer stretching just to get in. They’re stretching selectively, and only when a home clearly earns it. Anything that feels compromised, overpriced, or dated loses momentum quickly.
That’s why the East Bay can look healthy on paper while feeling uneven in practice. Activity is there, but it’s concentrated in homes that make the decision easy.
FYI, I’ve attached the most recent San Francisco and Inner East Bay market reports at the end of this post for anyone who wants to dig into the underlying data.
Economic outlook. Why conditions feel stable, not shifting
The broader economic backdrop heading into winter has cooled slightly, but not dramatically.
Job growth has slowed and unemployment has edged higher, while inflation came in lower than expected. Despite that, mortgage rates haven’t moved much and remain relatively stable in the low sixes.
In practical terms, this matters because it removes the illusion of a big reset around the corner. Borrowing costs may change gradually, but buyers are no longer waiting for a dramatic shift before acting.
The market isn’t reacting. It’s adjusting.
Looking into 2026
What’s notable about this winter is how early that adjustment seems to be happening.
Instead of a clear pause, the market feels like it’s already sorting itself. Fewer casual participants. Fewer half hearted listings. The activity that remains feels deliberate.
My take is that January may arrive with more activity than a typical winter would suggest. Inventory is still limited, and even small changes are often enough to pull buyers back in at once.
Not with panic. With purpose.
This is a market that’s quietly deciding what it will reward in the year ahead. Preparation over optimism. Clarity over waiting.
If you’re using this season to think through what 2026 might hold, this winter market offers some early clues about where momentum is building and where it’s thinning out. If you want to talk through what this market means for you, your neighborhood, or your plans for next year, I’m always happy to chat.
Wishing you a wonderful holiday season and a great start to the new year!
